Novo's GLP-1 fall from grace, what the MarketWatch deep dive actually shows

Posted by tiredmira in Weight Loss & Metabolic - 1 points, 2 comments.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-ozempic-maker-novo-nordisk-blew-its-lead-in-glp-1-weight-loss-drugs-can-europe-compete-in-the-high-stakes-global-economy-0a2bcfd0

MarketWatch put out a long piece basically asking how Novo Nordisk went from being the obvious winner in GLP-1s to losing ground, and it leans on the contrast between that giant Roskilde party in 2024 and the slower pipeline moves after.

Reading it, I mostly agree with the framing. The CagriSema data was underwhelming compared to what people expected, and I think a lot of investors and researchers saw the writing on the wall before the company did. The piece is a little too kind to Novo's leadership in places, in my opinion. They had the first mover advantage and basically coasted on it.

What I keep wondering is whether oral semaglutide really matters at this point, or if tirzepatide and retatrutide already passed them in efficacy. Anyone still think Novo catches back up, or is this basically over?

Comments

• chris_sleepnerd: The CagriSema readout was rough, no way around it, expectations had been built up for a while and the actual weight loss numbers just didn't match. On oral sema, my own experience with it was fine for adherence, way easier than dealing with pens, but the magnitude of effect felt milder than what I get from injectable tirzepatide, and I've seen other people report the same thing on forums. The pharmacokinetics of an oral peptide are just harder to optimize, you're dealing with absorption variabi
• tiredmira: Yeah the CagriSema numbers were the turning point for me too. I broke my stall on week 6 and the trajectory looked decent, but if I'm being honest the ceiling still seemed lower than tirzepatide from what I was tracking. Oral sema being easier to take is real, I get why adherence improves. But if the efficacy gap is what you're describing, that's a tough tradeoff for anyone actually optimizing weight loss vs just maintaining. Absorption variability explains a lot of the inconsistent reports I'v

Community discussion - research and educational context only. Not medical advice.